FGV monitor points to a slower second quarter
The think tank's GDP tracker estimates 0.3% growth; the official IBGE figure lands on September 1.
Fundação Getulio Vargas estimates that Brazil's economy grew 0.3% in the second quarter, a marked slowdown from the start of the year, according to its monthly GDP monitor.
The FGV tracker is a nowcast rather than the official measure, but it has a reasonable record of anticipating the direction of the IBGE release. That release is scheduled for September 1 and will be the first hard read on how much the year's high interest rates have weighed on activity.
A soft Q2 fits the rest of the picture: slowing formal hiring, weaker market growth forecasts and inflation drifting back into the band.
The question for the second half is whether four rate cuts so far are enough to stabilise growth before the fiscal debate takes over the headlines.