ForecastsAugust 24, 2026Via VEJA
Market pauses its inflation downgrades and trims 2026 growth to 1.95%
The weekly Focus survey held year-end IPCA at 5.02% and sees the Selic finishing at 13.75%.
5.02%
year-end IPCA forecast (Focus survey)
After several weeks of downward revisions, economists surveyed by the central bank's Focus poll left their year-end inflation forecast unchanged at 5.02%.
The same survey trimmed the 2026 GDP growth projection to 1.95%, and kept the expected year-end Selic at 13.75%, which implies one more 25 basis-point cut from the current 14%.
The pause in inflation downgrades came just before the IPCA-15 surprised to the downside, so next week's survey will show whether the market reads that print as a trend or a blip.
A 5.02% forecast still sits above the target, which is why the easing cycle remains cautious despite the improving monthly data.
Source: VEJA, August 24, 2026. This is an original summary; read the full report at the source.